By Santosh Menon/Daily News
Colombo, March 31- The Indian Prime Minister ( PM) Narendra Modi is visiting Sri Lanka after many years. He was here in 2019. And when Narendra Modi arrives in Sri Lanka on April 4th he would have been PM of India for 10 years, 10 months and 9 days. A total of 3970 days as PM making him the longest serving non congress PM of India. And only the third longest serving PM of India after Pandit Nehru and his daughter Indira Gandhi.
If you consider his tenure as an elected head of government which combines his tenure as CM of Gujarat, he has been in power in India for 23 years, exactly 8565 days on April 4th, which is the longest ever such tenure in Indian history surpassing the tenure of even Pandit Nehru at 6130 days as PM.
Significantly Narendra Modi is the first PM of India to be born after India’s independence. And when his legacy will be written, he perhaps would be seen as the Prime Minister who took India from being a developing power to one that’s well on the way to being fully developed.
Road Network
From the last time PM Narendra Modi was here to now, India has progressed rapidly. India has added 1 trillion USD to its GDP, and now has 6.7 million kms of roads making its road network, the largest in the world beating the USA. India has grown its middle class from 400 million in 2019 to 550 million in 2025. And reduced its population under the poverty line. Multi dimensional poverty numbers in India fell from 300 million to 72 million by 2025. India has also consistently been the fastest growing economy in the world over many years now.
Sri Lanka has not benefitted from India’s surge
Given this rapid progress of the Indian economy it does seem as if Sri Lanka and India have not wholeheartedly embraced each and therefore Sri Lanka has not fully benefited from the Indian economic surge.
India signed its first ever free trade agreement with Sri Lanka in 1998 but it became effective only in 2000. But look at some statistics – In 2023, India exported $3.62 billion worth of goods to Sri Lanka, down from $4.67 billion in 2018, reflecting a 4.93% annualized decline over five years. Conversely, Sri Lanka exported $991 million to India in 2023, a decrease from $1.32 billion in 2018 (5.63% annualized decline)
Data shows that Indian companies made investments worth 36 billion USD around the world but only made investments close to 1.2 billion USD in Sri Lanka. Similarly, 30 million Indian tourists travelled around the world in 2024. But only 450,000 of them travelled to Sri Lanka (highest number from one country).
So clearly the potential that exists for business with India is still largely unexploited by Sri Lanka.
From a Geopolitical perspective – India under PM Modi and Foreign Minister Mr. Jaishankar has seemingly ‘ read the room’ well. By not condemning Russia for the Ukraine incident but equally by stating up front that “ this is not the era for war”, India has emerged as a key player with enough credibility to be interlocutor in the dispute.
In a fast evolving world with non-alignment being replaced by multi-alignment, Narendra Modi and his team has been able to place India in a place of strength – Recently the world has been rocked by Trump 2.0 – but Narendra Modi has emerged as a leader who is admired and trusted by all.
India’s active engagement in multilateral alignment with participation in QUAD as well as BRICS signal its critical role in the emerging order – in shaping it and as a key representative and a voice of the global south in these forums.
Geopolitical Shocks
India is uniquely placed to be a buffer for Sri Lanka from both economic as well as geopolitical shocks. So will Sri Lanka embrace India fully and wholeheartedly as a partner ? Will this Narendra Modi trip then be a defining moment in the history of the two countries?
When the economic crisis hit Sri Lanka in 2021, it’s a well-known fact acknowledged by all, that India was the first responder and opened its hearts and wallets speedily and in scale. Subsequently the Finance Minister of India was known to have played a crucial role in allaying any fears that the IMF may have had in granting much needed loans to Sri Lanka.
At its time of utmost need, India was there for its friend. In fact, the then High Commissioner of India changed the terminology from ‘ big brother’ to ‘ civilisational twin’. Which further exemplified status of Sri Lanka and its stated equality with India, and it eloquently explained the sentiment behind the Indian response.
So April 4-6, 2025 could be the historic dates when the civilisational twins become true ‘ peas in a pod’ . Destined to share geography and determined to exploit that fully.
Steps Called For
There are some clear steps that can help Sri Lanka benefit from the Indian economic dividend.
It could be argued that India – Sri Lanka relationship is often held hostage by the baggage of past history- the vivid portrayal of Chola invasions in Sri Lankan minds and the recent civil war and perceived Indian role in it, have prevented Sri Lanka from wholeheartedly embracing India as its partner in growth and prosperity.
Despite India’s efforts recently , there is a lingering suspicion and a resentment of India pervasive in Sri Lanka. This is the time to let go of the past and embrace the future wholeheartedly. India as a civilizational twin of Sri Lanka’s is a reality and by trying to ‘ balance’ it, Sri Lanka is losing an opportunity to embrace it and benefit from the geographical dividend in its immediate neighbourhood.
On April 2nd, the world will know the implications of the US reciprocal tariff gambit. Sri Lanka could be badly impacted since a large part of its exports are to the US. And with 2028 (repayments of debts) looming, any loss of FDI can be crippling for the country. The time is right to forge a trade deal with the economic giant in the neighbourhood. It’s time for the Econmic and Technical Coooperatio Agreement (ETCA) to be signed. I feel certain India will be happy to forge an agreement- one that’s disproportionately in favor of Sri Lanka. The visit of Narendra Modi is the historic moment when Sri Lanka must say “ we are ready” to do ETCA now.
The new government in Sri Lanka has come to power on the platform of change. It has demonstrated remarkable pragmatism in its actions- by embracing the philosophy of ‘ continuity with change’ thus signalling the need for stability while at the same time making changes in the structural deficiencies in the polity that have held Sri Lanka back from fulfilling its potential. The time to change the way Sri Lanka engages with India is here. And the Narendra Modi visit is that platform to demonstrate sincerity of intent and desire.
Sri Lanka needs to connect – digitally, for energy security, for easy daily access to markets to India. These imperatives have forever been on the discussion table between the two countries. I asked ‘ Grok’ the new AI tool as to how long it will take to build a land road between India and Sri Lanka. And its realistic assessment was 12 years. That is only in 2037. Assessments indicate India will be a 14-15 trillion USD economy by 2037. And the world’s third largest economy. If leaders today ‘ take the plunge’ and have the vision, Sri Lanka could herald in a golden age of being the gateway to global trade by having an unique access to not only India but through India to a ‘ golden road’ of trade and opportunity to the Middle East and Europe.
If all of the above actions are taken, I am certain that a new chapter will open in the India Sri Lanka relationship. And for generations, this Sri Lankan government will be acknowledged as the ones responsible for an economic renaissance by actively engaging India as a partner. And South Asian partnership would have a new beacon of excellence
PM Modi is known to hug world leaders who are his friends and close partners. The moot question is will AKD hug Narendra Modi? I really hope he does. The time has come for India and Sri Lanka to wholeheartedly embrace each other and thereby benefit mutually from it.
(Santosh Menon is the President of Lanka India Business Association- LIBA and can be reached at president@liba.lk .. for more information on LIBA go to www.liba.lk)
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