By P.K.Balachandran/Counterpoint

Colombo, December 27 – Bangladeshis are yearning for law and order, checks on corruption and a sense of direction from Tarique Rahman, the interim chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), who returned from a 17 year exile on December 25 to take charge of his disabled party. . 

Tarique got a massive and rousing reception in Dhaka. To the nearly one million people who had gathered to greet Tarique, his arrival meant that Bangladesh would be returning to normal politics after the chaos that was unleashed by the July 2024 revolution and the incompetent successor government led by Dr.Muhammad Yunus.  

The last phase of the Sheikh Hasina government was undoubtedly marked by brutal State repression of dissenters. But the Interim Government led by Dr. Yunus was no better. Bangladesh saw unprecedented street violence, thuggery, brazen political vendetta, massive arrests and cultural and religious intolerance unleashed by Islamic radicals led by the Jamaat-i-Islami  (Jamaat for short).  

Jamaat extremists, once banned by Sheikh Hasina, came out in full force on December 18, setting fire to the offices of two liberal and neutral newspapers, “Prothom Alo” and “The Daily Star” and burning the offices of two leading cultural institutions “Chhayanaut” and “Udichi Shilpigoshthi” because these taught “un-Islamic” arts like music, dance and sculpture.         

Though, like the Awami League, the BNP had been violent and had suppressed its opponents, both parties have been moderate Centre-Left (AL) or Centre Right (BNP) and have played the political game as per democratic norms for a large part.

With the Awami League being branded as “fascist” and banned from contesting elections or even carrying on any propaganda campaign, the democratic political field in Bangladesh has become an almost exclusive preserve of the BNP.

There are other parties like the Jatiyo Party (JP) but these are small. The new student-led party, the National Citizens’ Party (NCP), had been grabbing the headlines since the July 2024 revolution and had been spearheading the movement for democratization with the July Charter as its manifesto. But the NCP is organizationally weak with support only in the university campuses and in the urban areas.

The Jamaat  

Given in the present political scenario, the BNP’s main electoral opponent will be the Jamaat-i-lslami. The Jamaay had participated in the July 2024 revolution with gusto, though it had not spearheaded the charge which was done by the NCP. But the Jamaat has a distinct ideology which is explicitly Islamic and widely understood because Bangladesh is a Muslim-majority country.

The Jamaat has a wide network, especially in the rural areas, through thousands of mosques and Madrasahs or religious schools. Jamaat-minded persons are also found in government service because the certificates issued by the “Qaumi Madrasahs” run by the Hefazat-e-Islam were accorded official recognition by the Hasina government.

Since the Yunus government removed the ban on the Jamaat, the organization has been every active. It has redefined itself to suit the new “revolutionary” public mood. It has propounded the concept of an “Islamic Left” to bring within its fold, occupational groups like workers and peasants with the promise of fighting for their rights. Some months ago, a survey found that 65% of the respondents viewed the Jamaat’s political plank favourably.

US Institute’s Survey

The International Republican Institute, an US research agency, conducted a survey in Bangladesh between September 13 and October 12, and found that 29% would vote for Jamaat, 33% for the BNP and 6% for NCP.

On the question, which party the respondents liked, 23% said BNP and 20% said Jamaat. The Awami League was almost completely out of consideration as 60% had said that they supported the ban on that party.

Therefore, the competition in any election held right now, the BNP will be ahead of the Jamaat but only marginally.

Jamaat a Strong Contender

On February 12, 2026, when parliamentary elections are held, the Jamaat will be strong contender and the BNP will have to bring out and use all its resources and political skills to steal a march over the Jamaat. Being a Centre-Right party, the BNP will have the support of the business class which will provide it funds. But the Jamaat’s coffers are not going to be empty as it could get support from Islamic countries. Pakistan and Turkiye could also pitch in, in various ways.

Achilles Heel   

But the Jamaat has an Achilles’ heel, which is its traditional opposition to the liberation of Bangladesh or its separation from Pakistan in 1971. The Jamaat considered the separation “anti-Islamic” something done at the behest of “Hindu India”. Many Jamaatis  helped the Pakistani army’s campaign to crush the freedom fighters.

Of late, however, the Jamaat has been trying to dilute its opposition to the 1971 war and trying to divert public attention to its new brand “Leftist Islam” with some success.

BNP’s Strengths 

The BNP’s founder and the father of Tarique Rahman, Gen.Ziaur Rahman, was the first Bengali officer to shoot his Pakistani commanding officer at the Chittagong cantonment and declare the independence of Bangladesh in March 1971.  

Gen.Ziaur Rahman was an Islamist too. As President of Bangladesh he had the constitution declare that Islam is the State religion. To distinguish Muslim Bangladesh from the Hindu Indian State of West Bengal, Zia promoted the concept of “Bangladeshi nationalism” as opposed to “Bengali nationalism.”

The BNP had taken the Jamaat as an electoral ally and had persecuted minority Hindus during its rule to prove to the Jamaat that it was not a lackey of Hindu India.

However, the BNP was not always anti-India because, as a ruling party, it had to have reasonably good relations with India, surrounded as Bangladesh is by India on three sides. The BNP is aware that the survival of Bangladesh is dependent on close economic and trade relations with India.

Since the Awami League was outlawed and Sheikh Hasina was shunted out of the country, the BNP is hoping to woo the Awami League’s traditional voters portraying itself as the only credible alternative to the Awami League. Tarique Rahman will also woo the religious minorities, portraying himself as the only alternative to Sheikh Hasina who had been the minorities’ protector for decades.

Burning of Newspaper Offices

On December 18, the arson attack on respectable dailies such as “Prothom Alo” and “The Daily Star” could prove to be the Jamaat’s undoing. It was a grievous error. These papers were attacked because they were seen as being “pro-India”, clearly indicating the Jamaat’s hand in the atrocity.

The public revulsion over the attack is a severe setback for the Jamaat. Because of this, the field is more favourable for the BNP than it was in September-October.

Tarique’s Speech  

In his speech at Dhaka on Thursday, Tarique Rahman called for “peace, unity and democratic restoration.” At one stage in his speech, he repeated “We want peace in our country” three times.

He placed strong emphasis on the role of the younger generation, saying they would carry the responsibility of rebuilding the country on firm democratic and economic foundations.

Throughout the speech, Tarique framed his political message within the nation’s historical struggles, invoking both the 1971 Liberation War and the July 2024 mass uprising that led to the collapse of the Hasina government. He paid tribute to those who had sacrificed their lives for the country’s independence and sovereignty, saying the blood debt of martyrs from 1971, as well as those killed during years of authoritarian rule, must not be forgotten.

Referring to the July uprising, he said it had demonstrated how ordinary people — farmers, workers, women, students and religious minorities — had come together to reclaim their rights. “The people of Bangladesh want their voices back. They want their democratic rights restored. They want justice based on merit,” he said.

He also mentioned the killing of Osman Hadi, a young leader linked to the July movement, describing him as a martyr who dreamed of a democratic and just Bangladesh.

Leader of All Communities

In a speech laced with religious references and inclusive rhetoric, Tarique emphasised unity across religion, ethnicity and class. “This country is home to hill communities and people of the plains, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists and Christians. We want to build a Bangladesh where everyone feels safe,” he said.

He spoke of a vision in which women, children and minorities could move freely without fear, a message aimed at easing public concern over recent mob violence and criminal incidents.

“I have a Plan”

In one of the most notable moments of the speech, Tarique invoked the famous words of US civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr, “I have a dream” and added -“I have a plan This plan is for the interests of the people of the country, for the development of the country, and for changing the destiny of the people. To implement this plan, the cooperation of every person in the country is needed.”

Intelligentsia’s Doubts

While the speech gave much hope for the masses, the intelligentsia in Bangladesh were sceptical. They cited Tarique’s inexperience, his absence from the country for 17 years, the BNP’s withered structure given the fact that it had been out of the government for years and had boycotted elections in protest against rigging.

It was also pointed out that the BNP was known for its corrupt members and supporters and their resort to unfair methods to put down their opponents. Would Tarique be able to clean the stables?

But those who support the BNP said that the party and its leaders are now chastened after seeing what happened to Sheikh Hasina whose repressive regime resulted in her political annihilation.  

END