By Veeragathy Thanabalasingham

Colombo, March 27 – Considering the fact that there had been a 10% reduction in voter turnout in the 2024 parliamentary elections in comparison with Presidential election of September 21, it seems that the number of people turning up at the polling booths in the May 6 local body will be even less.

The people are dissatisfied with the National People’s Power (NPP )  government, which they brought to power with great expectations. People who were expecting immediate relief from economic hardships are disappointed. The local elections will certainly show whether the government’s popular support has waned or not.

But still there is no reason why people should turn to the opposition parties. All opposition parties have lost support and are in a state of disarray. With the major opposition parties presently entangled in internal power struggles, it is unlikely that they can give a fight to the ruling NPP.

Therefore, in the case of southern Sri Lanka, most people are likely to vote in the same way as they did in the parliamentary elections.

In the last parliamentary elections, Tamils had supported the NPP in the Northern and Eastern Provinces in an unprecedented way. The NPP won more seats than the Tamil nationalist political parties, which had traditionally enjoyed  overwhelming popular support in both provinces. The question is whether the Tamil people will vote in the local elections in the same way as they did in the parliamentary elections.

Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Minister Ramalingam Chandrashekar, who is in charge of the NPP in the North, expressed confidence that they  it would capture all the local bodies. At the same time, the  northern Tamil nationalist parties do not seem to have learned a lesson from the results of the last  parliamentary elections. Tamil nationalist parties still believe that they were not supported by the people  in the north simply because they contested separately.

The Tamil National People’s Front (TNPF) leader and Member of Parliament Gajendra Kumar Ponnambalam, in a recent interview to The Hindu’s Colombo correspondent Meera Srinivasan, had said that the Tamil people wanted to teach a lesson to the Tamil parties. “The Tamil people wanted to teach a lesson to the traditional Tamil nationalist parties, including ours. Our vote share has halved. The next election will be a disaster if we fail to act wisely in the face of the looming danger. We need to work together in parliament ” he said.

Ponnambalam, one of the senior leaders from the North, has come forward for the first time to unite with some of the Tamil parties even outside Parliament. Known for his dogmatic approach, he had been reluctant  to form alliances with other Tamil parties citing his “unblemished ” Tamil nationalism as the reason. But, the smaller Tamil parties contesting the local elections with his TNPF had  reached out to him after their earlier attempts to form an alliance with other parties failed.  

Attempts by other Tamil parties, such as the Democratic Tamil National Alliance (DTNA), to expand their alliances have also failed. Some of the Tamil parties that are willing to join coalitions may have only a small number of members. Therefore, it will not be difficult for anyone to understand the size of their vote share. These parties are struggling to find space and a voice for themselves.

The Ilankai Thamizharasu Katchi (ITAK ) is contesting alone in all local local bodies. This party has taken a   position that it can join with other Tamil parties in forming the administration in the local councils after the election results are out. The ITAK is saying that the local government election system does not allow any one party to capture a majority of seats.  The ITAK is currently under the control of its acting general secretary, former MP MA Sumanthiran. It is no secret that the other Tamil parties in the North will try their best to defeat the ITAK rather than the NPP.

The main challenge for the ITAK  is to overcome serious infighting. In this election, as in the parliamentary election, a large number of independent groups are contesting at the instance of certain forces within the Tamil diaspora and vested interests at home with the aim of creating political chaos.

In the parliamentary elections, the NPP came first in eight of the ten constituencies in Jaffna district, except Chavakachcheri and Kayts. According to the old electoral system ( First – Past the  Post ) eight of the members of parliament in Jaffna today belong to the ruling party. 

Of particular note is the warning by some political observers of a potential setback, if the people in the North vote in local elections in the manner in which they did in the parliamentary elections.

The NPP, especially the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), is not interested in finding a political solution to the ethnic problem through devolution of power. Government leaders, including President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, have repeatedly said that the Provincial Council system will remain in place until a new constitution is promulgated. But they don’t talk about the 13th Amendment to the Constitution which is the framework for devolution.

History shows that the NPP/JVP are fundamentally against the concept  of devolution, even as they state  that they will never allow racism and religious extremism to re-emerge and that their policy is to treat all communities as equal Sri Lankans.

The NPP government does not understand that in order to prevent   racism from resurfacing, it is necessary to find a solution to the problems that same racism has created.

Therefore, if the NPP, led by such leaders, were to take over most of the local government bodies in the North, there is a possibility of a major setback to the concept underlying the decades-long struggle of the Tamil people to find a solution to the national question through devolution of power. The leaders of the NPP have been hell-bent on portraying the support given by the Tamil people in the parliamentary elections as an endorsement of their policies, thereby  strengthening their long -standing position  against devolution of power.

The government and its leaders are not interested in finding a political solution that meets the legitimate political aspirations of the Tamils.  

In such a situation, the northern Tamils should not vote in the local  elections in a manner that could undermine the political legitimacy of their decades-long struggle with  unimaginable sacrifices. If the NPP captures most of the local bodies in the north,  there is a danger that it could be construed as the Tamil people’s acceptance of its stance against devolution.

These comments should not be construed as a campaign in favour of the Tamil political parties which failed to guide the Tamil people properly in the period after the end of the war. The warning against the potential danger to the political legitimacy of the struggles of the Tamil people and the concept of devolution of power should not be confused with the opportunistic interests of Tamil parties which are yet to change their old ways of politicking that have been detrimental to the welfare of the Tamil people.

(The writer is a senior journalist based in Colombo)