By P.K. Balachandran/Daily News
Colombo, December 30 – India, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Interim Government led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus, appear to have entered an informal understanding to bring back inclusive democracy to Bangladesh, put Indo-Bangla relations back on the rails and ensure peace and security in the region.
The deal is premised on the BNP emerging as the ruling party through the February 12, 2026 parliamentary elections.
Once the BNP is ensconced in office, India can negotiate the grant some sort of reprieve to the exiled Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, and her party, the Awami League. Hasina is now facing a death sentence and her party the Awami League is banned.
Hasina could appeal against her death sentence to the Supreme Court of Bangladesh and the government could lift the ban on the Awami League just as the Yunus government lifted the ban on the Jamaat-e-Islami, banned earlier by the Awami League government.
India would like the February 2026 elections to be inclusive as External Affairs Minister S.Jaishankar said recently. He had argued that if the present government’s grievance is that Sheikh Hasina had rigged elections, the best way to correct the situation would be to hold free and fair elections.
On December 23, five US Congressmen, Gregory W.Meeks, Bill Huizenga, Sydney Kamlager-Dove, Julie Johnson and Thomas R.Suozzi, had asked Dr. Yunus to lift the ban on the Awami League as criminal responsibility could only be placed on an individual and not on a collective. They called for a free and fair election in which all parties can participate.
On December 22, the Russian Ambassador to Bangladesh Alexander G Khozin urged both Bangladesh and India to find a way to prevent further escalation of ongoing tensions between the two countries. Speaking to the media, Khozin said a conducive environment must be created ahead of Bangladesh’s upcoming national election and that reducing tensions with India was essential. “The sooner this happens, the better,” he added.
BNP’s Current Line
Peace and security in the region that are now very fragile in the region can be ensured only by fighting the radical Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami’s bid to emerge as a decisive player in Bangladeshi politics. Only a strong BNP can do it.
The BNP current line, as enunciated by its interim chairman Tarique Rahman at a public meeting in Dhaka on December 25, is right up India’s street. Addressing concerns about the persecution of minorities, especially the Hindus, Tarique said – “This country is home to hill communities and people of the plains, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists and Christians. We want to build a Bangladesh where everyone feels safe.”
Tarique urged his supporters to avoid disorder and not respond to provocations. “ We must maintain peace and discipline at any cost,” he said, indirectly alluding to the Jamaat’s hand in the burning of the offices of two leading liberal newspapers “Prothom Alo” and “The Daily Star” and two cultural institutions, including “Chhayanaut”.
Moves for a Detente
On December 2, “India Today” said that some recent gestures from India and Bangladesh hinted at a “carefully crafted thaw.” The ice was broken when the Bangladesh National Security Advisor Dr. Khalilur Rahman visited New Delhi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted wished the ailing BNP chief, Begum Khaleda Zia, a speedy recovery. In a post in both English and Bengali, Modi offered “all possible support” for her recovery.
The BNP replied over X, saying that the “BNP expresses its sincere gratitude to the Honourable Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, for his thoughtful message and kind wishes for the speedy recovery of BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia.”
S.Jaishankar’s Remarks
At the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit held recently in New Delhi, Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said that former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s stay in India was “her personal decision influenced by circumstances in her country. But that is something about which she has to make up her mind.”
By saying so, India disentangled itself from any role in Hasina’s decision to seek refuge in India. The implication was that she was welcome to choose her place of stay.
The Bangladesh Foreign Affairs Adviser, Touhid Hossain, told “Dhaka Tribune” that relations with India would not be hampered by a couple of unresolved issues, including the extradition of Sheikh Hasina to face the death sentence passed on her.
Randhir Jaiswal, India’s Official Spokesperson said -“We remain committed to the best interests of the people of Bangladesh, including peace, democracy, inclusion and stability in that country. We will continue to engage constructively in this regard with all stakeholders”.
On December 6, the Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Pranay Verma said “India seeks a stable, positive, constructive, forward-looking, and mutually beneficial relationship with Bangladesh, based on equality and mutual respect, with the people of both countries as the primary stakeholders.” He was speaking at a function to celebrate “Maitri Diwas” the 54th anniversary of India’s recognising Bangladesh as independent country.
Verma’s counterpart in India Riaz Hamidullah was also positive indicating that Bangladesh is trying to work on a “new canvas” in its relations with India, where both countries share a common future. “Focusing on only one aspect would not do justice,” Hamidullah said at an interactive session organised by the Merchants’ Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Kolkata.
He added that Dhaka is focusing more on cultural diplomacy, tourism facilitation, and broader economic integration.
Indian Naval Chief
The Indian Navy Chief, Adm. Dinesh K Tripathi, had said on November 30 that he viewed Bangladesh as a friend and expected the current turbulence to end soon. He noted that the defence engagement between the two countries continues.
“We are training their personnel here. I met a Bangladeshi cadet who passed out of the NDA this morning. After taking charge, my first overseas visit was meant to be Bangladesh. There was another option of a more high-profile capital, but I insisted on going to Bangladesh first,” Adm. Tripathi said.
On December 9, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs said, “The two governments successfully concluded the release and repatriation of 47 Indian fishermen and 38 Bangladesh fishermen, along with their operable vessel today. In January 2025, the Government of India had facilitated the release of 95 Indian fishermen, and in a reciprocal manner released 90 Bangladesh fishermen”.
The BNP has said that it wants a relationship with India based on mutual respect
BNP Largest Party
The BNP is now the only major mainstream political party in the electoral field. According to a survey conducted by the US-based International Republican Institute between September 13 and October 12 in Bangladesh, 33% would vote for BNP, 29% for Jamat and 6% for the new students’ party the National Citizens’ Party (NCP). The Awami was out of the reckoning because it was banned.
Therefore, if an election is held right now, the BNP will be ahead of the Jamaat but only marginally.
Jamaat, a Close Second
But the Jamaat’s being a close second is matter of great concern for India because it is virulently anti-India and anti-Hindu too. The Jamaat was behind the torching of the offices of two leading newspapers “Prothom Alo” and “The Daily Star” for being allegedly pro-India.
The Jamaat, which was banned by Prime Minister Hasina over terror activities, has gnawed its way back into legitimate politics under the Interim Government led by Yunus. It is also said that Yunus became the head of the Interim Government in August 2024 because of Jamaat’s influence over the students who were leading the anti-Hasina agitation.
The Jamaat’s pro-Pakistan stand is well known as it backed the Pakistan army’s bid to crush the Bangladesh liberation movement in 1971. On his part, Yunus has formed close military ties with Pakistan and eyed India’s vulnerable North Eastern States.
BNP has Changed
Earlier, the BNP had been in alliance with the Jamaat and was anti-India too. But it is expected to change now since it needs India’s support to ensure peace on the 4096 km Bangladesh-India border and to trade with India. To ensure this, it will contain the Jamaat.
The policy of the new BNP as enunciated by Tarique Rahman in his December 25 oration, clearly indicated that the BNP of 2025 is miles away from the BNP of the 1980s and 1990s when relations with India were bad. It was the BNP government’s animosity towards India that made India back Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League to the hilt.
The BNP’s decision to contest the February 2026 polls alone and not in alliance with the Jamaat. bodes well for Delhi- BNP relations.
Reorientation of India
But India too will have to re-orient itself towards Bangladesh. It will have to be tolerant towards Bangladesh’s bid to be a sovereign country, fully entitled to be friendly with any other country and manage its economy. Putting fetters on Dhaka will recoil on India as it happened recently when Hasina was thrown out and the population turned against India.
However, powers, whether global or regional, have an urge to have their way with weaker and smaller countries. It remains to be seen if India and Bangladesh will overcome entrenched tendencies and put their relationship on a stable footing.
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