By Veeragathy Thanabalasingham

Colombo, March 14 – Nominations for the long-delayed local government elections will be accepted from tomorrow (17) to Thursday (20), with the polls expected in early May. For opposition parties—both in the South and among Tamil nationalists in the North—this election presents a difficult challenge. Following last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections, they have struggled to regain public support and are organizationally weak. Yet, they must contest to remain relevant in politics. Efforts to forge alliances have largely failed.

A Fractured Opposition in the South

The once-dominant United National Party (UNP) and Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) have lost much of their support, while the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) is a shadow of its former self. In this landscape, Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), led by Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa, remains the second-largest political force, though its popularity has also waned.

Attempts to form an electoral pact between the UNP and SJB have stalled due to the long-standing rivalry between Ranil Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa. Despite interest from politicians in both parties, this personality clash remains a major obstacle. Reports indicate the UNP has given SJB until March 20 to decide on a joint contest for the Colombo Municipal Council, but it is likely they will compete separately.

Meanwhile, the ruling Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) will treat the local elections as a referendum on its first five months in power. Many who voted for the NPP in the national elections are now frustrated by unfulfilled economic promises, yet there is no significant shift in public sentiment toward the opposition.

A key concern is voter interest. With three elections in seven months, many wonder if the electorate, facing economic hardships, will turn out in significant numbers.

Tamil Nationalist Parties in Disarray

Tamil political parties, which suffered historic setbacks in the Northern and Eastern provinces in the last election, have also attempted to form alliances but failed. They have not fully grasped why the NPP made electoral gains in these regions.

Tamil National People’s Front (TNPF) leader Gajendra Kumar Ponnambalam was among the first to push for unity among Tamil parties post-election. He sought collaboration with Ilankai Thamizharasu Katchi (ITAK) parliamentary leader Sivagnanam Sreedharan and Democratic Tamil National Alliance (DTNA) MP Selvam Adaikalanathan. However, ITAK’s acting leader C.V.K. Sivagnanam rejected urgent engagement, arguing that constitutional reforms would not take place for another three years, making immediate political alignment unnecessary.

Sreedharan, initially open to Ponnambalam’s overtures, found himself sidelined by ITAK’s internal power struggles. The party remains under the firm control of Mathiabaranam Abraham Sumanthiran, who, despite losing to Sreedharan in the ITAK leadership race, recently secured the post of acting general secretary. His influence ensured that ITAK refrained from rushing into any new alliances.

Ponnambalam, however, continued his push for Tamil political consolidation. In an interview with The Hindu, he acknowledged that Tamil nationalist politics had eroded, leading to a dramatic decline in voter support. He warned that if Tamil parties failed to adapt, future elections would be disastrous.

Revival of the Tamil National Alliance?

Sivagnanam attempted to revive the defunct Tamil National Alliance (TNA), reaching out to former coalition partners PLOTE, EPRLF, and TELO. While these parties initially showed interest, they later formed the Democratic Tamil National Alliance (DTNA), including six additional Tamil groups, effectively sidelining Sivagnanam’s efforts.

In response, Sivagnanam wrote to these parties, expressing his objection. PLOTE leader Dharmalingam Siddharthan defended the DTNA’s position, arguing that ITAK should join them rather than revive the TNA. In turn, Sivagnanam rejected this suggestion, asserting that ITAK, as the primary Tamil political movement, would contest the local elections alone, aiming to capture all 17 local bodies in Jaffna. Meanwhile, Ponnambalam’s TNPF and former Northern Province Chief Minister C.V. Wigneswaran’s Tamil National People’s Alliance are also expected to run separately.

A Repeating Cycle of Fragmentation

The divisions among Tamil parties mirror their strategy in the parliamentary elections, which led to their electoral decline. Sumanthiran has reiterated ITAK’s strategy of forming local government administrations after securing seats separately. However, this was the very approach that drove PLOTE and TELO to break away and officially register the DTNA as their electoral movement.

Even if Tamil parties contest together, there is little reason to believe they will regain public confidence. Their failure to acknowledge the real reasons behind their electoral defeat—beyond simply not running as a united front—suggests continued political isolation.

The NPP’s Approach to Tamil Issues

Despite winning the most seats in the North and East, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s government has shown no urgency in addressing Tamil political concerns. In the past six months, it has not engaged in meaningful dialogue on resolving the national ethnic question. Even discussion of the 13th Amendment—part of the constitution for nearly four decades—has been avoided.

The upcoming local elections will thus serve as a test of whether Tamil voters have shifted their stance on the NPP, or if continued division among Tamil parties will once again play to the government’s advantage.

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(The writer is a senior journalist based in Colombo)