By P.K.Balachandran

Colombo, February 13 – The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is on course for a thumping win in the 13th national election held on Thursday, the Bangladeshi media said on Friday.

According to estimates, the BNP and its allies were leading in 170 out of a total of 300 electoral seats will 3:30am on Friday. The BNP,  which has been out of office for nearly two decades, was hopeful of securing more than a two-thirds majority.

The Jamaat-e-Islami and its allies made significant gains, claiming victory in 60 seats.

The National Citizen Party (NCP), born out of the student-led uprising and a partner of the Jamaat-led alliance, won six constituencies, said Asif Mahmud Shojib Bhuyain, chief of the party’s election steering committee, on his official verified Facebook page.

These unofficial results were based on tallies by political parties and data from returning officers. The Election Commission is expected to announce the official results later on Friday.

Top BNP leaders, including its Chairman Tarique Rahman and Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, won their respective constituencies as per unofficial results. Tarique, who returned to the country after 17 years in exile in the UK, has been elected from both Dhaka-17 and Bogura-6, according to unofficial results from the EC and party sources.

The Jamaat’s  Nayeb-e-Ameer Syed Abdullah Mohammed Taher was leading the race in Cumilla-12, while Nayeb-e-Ameer ATM Azharul Islam from Rangpur-2, and Barrister Mir Ahmad Bin Quasem Arman from Dhaka-14 were ahead of their competitors.

NCP Convener Nahid Islam was leading the race in Dhaka-11, while Member Secretary Akhter Hossen from Rangpur-4, Chief Organiser (Southern Region) Hasnat Abdullah from Cumilla-4, and Joint Convener Atik Mujahid from Kurigram-2 were ahead of their rivals.

Women and Youth

The presence of women voters was overwhelming, with many arriving in groups, reflecting broad participation that cut across age and gender. Young voters, making up 43.56 percent of the 12.10 crore electorate, showed up in droves.

The Awami League (AL) led by Sheikh Hasina had been barred from contesting the election for its role in the brutal crackdown that claimed at least 1,400 lives. Unlike the previous polls marred by deadly clashes, arson attacks and sweeping allegations of irregularities, Thursday’s vote saw only sporadic and low-intensity incidents.

Referendum

Alongside electing a new parliament widely seen as critical to the country’s democratic transition after years of political turmoil, voters took part in a referendum on constitutional reforms. As of the last count, “Yes” got 215,579 votes while “No” received 80,203 votes.

Poll in Unprecedented Conditions

The 13th parliamentary elections took place under unprecedented conditions. The old warhorse, the Awami League, was absent, disqualified on charges of misrule. The BNP emerged from the doghouse and was poised to capture power. The previously banned Jamaat-i-Islami teamed up with the new student-led outfit, the National Citizens Party (NCP), posing a challenge to the BNP. 

A survey released by the United States-based International Republican Institute (IRI) in early December 2025 put the BNP at 33 percent, with Jamaat close behind at 29 percent, and projected 6 percent support for the NCP. Another survey – jointly conducted by Projection BD, NarratiV, the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD) and the Jagoron Foundation – positioned the BNP at 34.7 percent and Jamaat at 33.6 percent, calling it, statistically, “a very close contest”.

The BNP contested the election with its own candidates in 292 of 300 constituencies, leaving just eight seats for the allies of the party. However, as many as 92 candidates were in the field are BNP “rebels” contesting as Independents.

Women Absent from Candidates’ List

Only 3.8 % of the candidates in the election were women. The Jamaat has the distinction of not fielding a single female candidate. And this in a country where there were two women Prime Ministers, Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League and Khaleda Zia of the BNP. 

“This was meant to be an election representing change and reform. Instead, we are seeing women being systematically erased and their rights threatened,” Sabiha Sharmin, 25, told The Guardian. “We worry this election will throw the country back 100 years,” she added.

Up and Coming Jamaat-i-Islami

Since the fall of the Awami League government due to the July 2024 uprising, the Jamaat-i-Islami or Jamaat for short, was presenting itself as a key force behind the uprising. The unorganised students outfit NCP failed to counter that propaganda, with the result, the NCP became a camp follower of the Jamaat. The Jamaat had expanded its influence across political categories, social and economic classes.

The Jamaat believes in bringing Sharia law to Bangladesh. The Jamaat’s influence is strong, particularly in the rural areas where people are naturally conservative. Last year, small-town girls were prevented from playing football by religious leaders who termed it indecent. In the urban areas, Islamist vigilante groups confronted women who did not cover their hair or dress modestly.

Rhetoric from the Jamaat’s supremo, Shafiqur Rahman, had a chilling effect. In an interview to Al Jazeera, he said a woman could never lead the party as it was un-Islamic. Last year, he denied the existence of marital rape., He described rape as “immoral women and men coming together outside marriage”.

“These are the kinds of views and policies you hear in Iran and Afghanistan,” said Zayba Tahzeeb, 21, a physics student who attended the Dhaka midnight march. “Women’s sovereignty, our freedoms, our independence: all are at stake in this election, Zayba told The Guardian.

Among the policies proposed by the party is reducing women’s working hours from eight hours to five, with the government subsidising the lost income, so women can spend more time at home. Women make up 44% of the country’s workforce, according to the International Labour Organization, the highest proportion in South Asia. And paid work is a right fiercely guarded by women across economic strata in Bangladesh.

The Jamaat-i-Islami appears particularly popular among young, first-time voters, who make up 42% of the electorate and are hungry for change. The authoritarian nature of Hasina’s regime somewhat discredited secularism and made voters more open to Islamist politics this time around, The Guardian quoted analysts as saying.

Mir Ahmad Bin Quasem Arman, a barrister standing for election in the Dhaka-11 constituency, said that the fears of women towards his party were unfounded and part of a political smear campaign.

“When you talk to urban elites, their talking points are whether women can be in the top position of the government, whether women can wear whatever they want,” Arman said. “These are – I’m sorry to use the word – feminist demands. The ground level is very different. The primary requirement of the women on the ground, the working class, is safety, and that’s our prime concern.”

Thousands of female supporters of the Jamaat took to the streets of Arman’s constituency in Dhaka to deny that the party would restrict their freedoms.

Dissension in NCP

Many women in the NCP did not like its alliance with the Jamaat. Tajnuva Jabeen, a doctor and founder member of NCP, was one of a wave of women who left the NCP after the alliance was announced. “It was such a clear betrayal,” Jabeen told The Guardian.

“This was a historic opportunity to create a third political force, to represent the change that so many people died for in the July uprising. Instead, they failed the people and silenced the women who led this movement. I’m sorry to say, this election will not represent the spirit of the revolution.”

In defence of the Jamaat, Sirajim Munir, 27,said – “The policies the Jamaat is proposing will improve women’s lives and their safety. I think it will be good for the country to bring in Islamic law because it will make us honest and corruption-free.”

NCP leader Nahid Islam defended his decision to team up with Jamaat. “It’s an electoral alliance, not ideological,” he told Al Jazeera. “We do have some common issues: reform, combating corruption, good governance, sovereignty protection, and opposing hegemony.”

But Nahid added that there are boundaries the NCP will not cross.

“If our core positions, especially on women and minorities, are compromised, the alliance will not continue. The alliance with the Jamaat is only as an electoral alliance and not an ideological alliance”.

NCP-BNP Talks Failed

Initially the NCP wanted an alliance with the BNP but the BNP spurned it over the issue of holding a referendum on constitutional changes along with the parliamentary polls on February 12.

The BNP believed that any reform would have to be carried out by an elected parliament and not through a Referendum. In a Referendum the masses are asked to either say or no on the reform proposals. There is no collective decision making arrived through discussions.

But the NCP wanted to take the referendum route because it knew that the BNP will win the elections, and use its strength in parliament to bring only those reforms suitable to it.

END