By P.K. Balachandran/Counterpoint
Colombo, December 22 – US President Donald Trump’s National Security Strategy 2025, released by the White House last month, gives the overall strategic framework as well as guidelines for specific areas of concern.
Trump states that “strategy” begins from an accurate assessment of what is desired and what tools are available, or can realistically be created, to achieve desired outcomes. In other words, a strategy must evaluate, sort, and prioritize. Not every country, region, issue, or cause—however worthy—can be the focus of American strategy, it says.
“American strategies since the end of the Cold War have been laundry lists of wishes or desired end states. They have not clearly defined what we want but instead stated vague platitudes; and have often misjudged what we should want,” Trump says.
“After the end of the Cold War, American foreign policy elites convinced themselves that permanent American domination of the entire world was in the best interests of the US. But the reality was that the affairs of other countries should have been America’s concern only if their activities directly threaten American interests,” he argues.
Trump says that the American elites badly miscalculated US willingness to shoulder forever global burdens though the American people saw no connection with their national interest.
“They overestimated America’s ability to fund, simultaneously, a massive welfare-regulatory-administrative state alongside a massive military, diplomatic, intelligence, and foreign aid complex. They placed hugely misguided and destructive bets on globalism and so- called free trade that hollowed out the very middle class and industrial base on which American economic and military pre-eminence depend.”
“They allowed allies and partners to offload the cost of their defence onto the American people, and sometimes to suck us into conflicts and controversies central to their interests but peripheral or irrelevant to our own,” Trump recalls.
“ They lashed American policy to a network of international institutions, some of which are driven by outright anti-Americanism and many by a transnationalism that explicitly seeks to dissolve individual state sovereignty.””
The NSS 2025 aims to correct the situation.
Trump suggests that the following three questions be asked- 1) What should the United States want? 2) What are its available means to get it? and 3) How the US connect ends and means into a viable National Security Strategy?
Non-interventionism
Tump says that “non-interventionism” should be the corner stone of US foreign policy, though rigid adherence to non-interventionism is not possible. There could be grounds for justifiable intervention.
The important thing is US policy should be realistic.
“We seek good relations and peaceful commercial relations with the nations of the world without imposing on them democratic or other social change that differs widely from their traditions and histories. We recognize and affirm that there is nothing inconsistent or hypocritical in acting according to such a realistic assessment or in maintaining good relations with countries whose governing systems and societies differ from ours.” This is an important orientational change from the Obama and Biden era.
National sovereignties can be maintained if nations prioritize their interests, Trump says.
“The United States will put our own interests first and, in our relations with other nations, encourage them to prioritize their own interests as well.”
Intrusive International Organizations
The US will resist sovereignty-sapping incursions of the most intrusive transnational organizations, and for reforming those institutions so that they assist rather than hinder individual sovereignty, expressing his dislike of these organizations.
Trump made it clear that the US will unapologetically protect its own sovereignty. It will not allow the “cynical manipulation of the immigration system to build up voting blocs loyal to foreign interests within our country.”
The US cannot allow any nation to become so dominant that it could threaten its interests.
“We will work with allies and partners to maintain global and regional balances of power to prevent the emergence of dominant adversaries. As the United States rejects the ill-fated concept of global domination for itself, we must prevent the global, and in some cases even regional, domination of others,” he reasons.
But this does not mean “wasting blood and treasure to curtail the influence of all the world’s great and middle powers,” Trump says. On the other hand, the US will work with partners to thwart ambitions that threaten joint interests.
Balanced Trade
On trade and military relations, the NSS says that the US will no longer tolerate, and can no longer afford, free-riding, trade imbalances, predatory economic practices, and other impositions that hurt its interests.
“As we want our allies to be rich and capable, so must our allies see that it is in their interest that the United States also remain rich and capable. In particular, we expect our allies to spend far more of their national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on their own defence, to start to make up for the enormous imbalances accrued over decades of much greater spending by the United States,” the NSS says.
No Mass Immigration
In a message to the Global South, Trump declares that the era of mass migration is over. “Who a country admits into its borders—in hat numbers and from where—will inevitably define the future of that nation. Any country that considers itself sovereign has the right and duty to define its future.”
The NSS 2025 gives the contours of US policies in respect of the Western Hemisphere, Europe (including Russia), Asia (including China and South and West Asia) and Africa. But many countries including Bangladesh, Pakistan, Myanmar don’t figure at all.
Monroe Doctrine
The NSS covers the Western Hemisphere in detail. “The US will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere, and to protect our homeland and our access to key geographies throughout the region. We will deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets, in our hemisphere,” it says.
The Western Hemisphere is home to many strategic resources that America should partner with regional allies to develop, to make neighbouring countries as well as the US be more prosperous.
Keeping China Out
In an allusion to China’s inroads, the NSS says – “Non-Hemispheric competitors have made major inroads into our Hemisphere, both to disadvantage us economically in the present, and in ways that may harm us strategically in the future. Allowing these incursions without serious pushback is another great American strategic mistake of recent decades.”
The realist that he is, Trump admits that some foreign influence will be hard to reverse, given the political alignments between certain Latin American governments and certain foreign actors. However, he notes that many governments are not ideologically aligned with foreign powers but are instead attracted to doing business with them for other reasons, including low costs and fewer regulatory hurdles.
To meet this challenge, Trump suggests that the US demonstrate,with specificity, how many hidden costs—in espionage, cybersecurity, debt-traps, and other ways—are embedded in allegedly “low cost” foreign assistance.
“We should utilize US leverage in finance and technology to induce countries to reject such assistance. The US should make clear that American goods, services, and technologies are a far better buy in the long run, because they are higher quality and do not come with the same kind of strings as other countries’ assistance. That said, we will reform our own system to expedite approvals and licensing—again, to make ourselves the partner of first choice,” Trump says.
Europe
Trump believes that Europe is on the decline because of wrong policies including having too many regulations and unbridled immigration.
He points an accusing finger at the European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine migration policies that are transforming populations and creating strife.
“Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies,” he argues.
Russia
Europe’s lack of self-confidence is most evident in its relationship with Russia, Trump says.
“European allies enjoy a significant hard power advantage over Russia by almost every measure, save nuclear weapons. But many Europeans regard Russia as an existential threat. Managing European relations with Russia will require significant US diplomatic engagement, both to reestablish conditions of strategic stability across the Eurasian landmass, and to mitigate the risk of conflict between Russia and European states.”
“An expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, will stabilize European economies, prevent unintended escalation or expansion of the war, and reestablish strategic stability with Russia, and will enable the post-hostilities reconstruction of Ukraine, Trump argues.
“A large European majority wants peace, yet that desire is not translated into policy, ” he complains.
America’s goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory. We will need a strong Europe to help us successfully compete, and to work in concert with us to prevent any adversary from dominating Europe, he says.
China
The section on Asia is dominated by US relations with China, with only a passing reference to India. Other South or East Asian country hardly figure.
Trump claims that the policies of previous US governments had made China rich and powerful, which it used to its advantage. Since the Chinese economy reopened to the world in 1979, commercial relations between the US and China have been and remain fundamentally “unbalanced.”
China’s exports to low-income countries doubled between 2020 and 2024. US imports Chinese goods also indirectly from middlemen and Chinese-built factories in a dozen countries, including Mexico. China’s exports to low-income countries are today nearly four times its exports to the US.
Trump points out that the Indo-Pacific accounts for almost 50% of the world’s GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP), and a third based on nominal GDP. That share is certain to grow over the 21st century. To thrive at home, the US must successfully compete there.
And America can compete there, because it still retains tremendous assets—the world’s strongest economy and military, world-beating innovation, unrivalled “soft power,” that enables it to compete successfully. The US is building alliances and strengthening partnerships in the Indo-Pacific that will be the bedrock of security and prosperity long into the future.
Sheds Aggression
The NSS says that the US will rebalance America’s economic relationship with China, prioritizing reciprocity and fairness to restore American economic independence.
“Trade with China should be balanced and focused on non-sensitive factors. If America remains on a growth path—and can sustain that while maintaining a genuinely mutually advantageous economic relationship with Beijing—we should be headed from our present US$ 30 trillion economy in 2025 to US$ 40 trillion in the 2030s.”
Need for Deterrence
“Importantly, this must be accompanied by a robust and ongoing focus on deterrence to prevent war in the Indo-Pacific”, the NSS says.
The US must fight predatory, state-directed subsidies and industrial strategies; unfair trading practices; job destruction and deindustrialization; grand-scale intellectual property theft and industrial espionage; and threats against our supply chains that risk US access to critical resources, like minerals and rare earths. And fight opioid epidemics, the document says.
“The US must work with treaty allies and partners—who together add another USD$ 35 trillion in economic power to America’s US$ 30 trillion national economy to counteract predatory economic practices and use our combined economic power.”
Cooperation with India
The US must continue to improve commercial (and other) relations with India to encourage New Delhi to contribute to Indo-Pacific security, including through continued quadrilateral cooperation with Australia, Japan, and the United States (“the Quad”), Trump says.
The US must at the same time invest in research to preserve and advance our advantage in cutting-edge military and dual-use technology, with emphasis on the domains where US advantages are strongest.
These include undersea, space, and nuclear, as well as others that will decide the future of military power, such as AI, quantum computing, and autonomous systems, plus the energy necessary to fuel these domains, he says.
Private Sector Driven
Additionally, the US Government’s critical relationships with the American private sector help maintain surveillance of persistent threats to US networks, including critical infrastructure. Improving these capabilities will also require considerable deregulation to further improve America’s competitiveness, spur innovation, and increase access to America’s natural resources.
The US must execute robust diplomatic and private sector-led economic engagement in those countries where most of global economic growth is likely to occur over the coming decades.
Trade
On trade, Trump says, “We have made clear to our allies that America’s current account deficit is unsustainable. We must encourage Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia, Canada, Mexico, and other prominent nations in adopting trade policies that help rebalance China’s economy toward household consumption, because Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East cannot alone absorb China’s enormous excess capacity.”
China’s state-led and state-backed companies excel in building physical and digital infrastructure, and China has recycled perhaps $1.3 trillion of its trade surpluses into loans to its trading partners.
America and its allies have not yet formulated, much less executed, a joint plan for the so-called “Global South,” but together possess tremendous resources, Trump admits.
“Europe, Japan, South Korea, and others hold net foreign assets of $7 trillion. International financial institutions, including the multilateral development banks, possess combined assets of $1.5 trillion,” he points out.
With the world’s deepest and most efficient capital markets, America can help low-income countries develop their own capital markets and bind their currencies more closely to the dollar, ensuring the dollar’s future as the world’s reserve currency, he adds.
Deterring Chinese Military Threat
Given that one-third of global shipping passes annually through the South China Sea, this has major implications for the US economy.
Hence deterring a conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch, is a priority.
“We will build a military capable of denying aggression anywhere in the First Island Chain. But the American military cannot, and should not have to, do this alone. Our allies must step up and spend—and more importantly do—much more for collective defence,” Trump says.
“America’s diplomatic efforts should focus on pressing our First Island Chain allies and partners to allow the US military greater access to their ports and other facilities, to spend more on their own defence, and most importantly to invest in capabilities aimed at deterring aggression. This will interlink maritime security issues along the First Island Chain while reinforcing US and allies’ capacity to deny any attempt to seize Taiwan or achieve a balance of forces so unfavourable to us as to make defending that island impossible,” Trump says.
South China Sea
A related security challenge is the potential for any competitor to control the South China Sea. This could allow a potentially hostile power to impose a toll system over one of the world’s most vital lanes of commerce or—worse—to close and reopen it at will. Either of those two outcomes would be harmful to the US economy and broader U.S. interests.
“Strong measures must be developed along with the deterrence necessary to keep those lanes open, free of tolls, and not subject to arbitrary closure by one country. This will require not just further investment in our military—especially naval—capabilities, but also strong cooperation with every nation that stands to suffer, from India to Japan and beyond, if this problem is not addressed,” Trump says.
Japan and South Korea must increase defence spending, with a focus on the capabilities—including new capabilities—necessary to deter adversaries and protect the First Island Chain, he adds.
China’s Reaction
Commenting on the 2025 NSS, China’s “Global Times” said- “ In comparison with Trump’s 2017 NSS, the 2025 report tones down the ideological confrontation.
“The scope of competition focuses on the trade, economic, and technology domains, advocating for trade in non-sensitive areas while prioritizing safeguards against supply chain dependencies and technological rivalry.” Global Times notes.
Middle East
With regard to the NSS’s implications for the Middle East, analysts have drawn attention to the fact that Israel is mentioned only six times in the document.
The US is seeking to extricate itself from the forever wars long associated with the region and, in the process, consign the Middle East to a less central place in its day-to-day foreign policy calculus.
Israel will remain an important partner for Washington, but as the US continues to reduce its regional footprint, Israel may be compelled to assume a greater share of responsibility for addressing perceived threats, exercising increased strategic autonomy from the US, Middle East watchers said.
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