By Veeragathy Thanabalasingham

Colombo, November 2 – There was a time when the United National Party (UNP)  was the single largest  political party with the largest vote bank. Its main rival, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), was able to defeat the UNP in elections only through alliances with other parties, particularly with the Left.

In the last century, we saw the UNP garner more votes across the country, even in the few general elections in which the SLFP – led coalitions won and formed the government.

But today, with the same UNP is severely weakened under the 30-year- leadership of Ranil Wickremesinghe, it is mobilizing the opposition parties against the National People’s Power (NPP) led by the Janata Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), a left-wing coalition that captured power through democratic elections for the first time in Sri Lanka’s political history.

It was said that President JR Jeyewardene introduced the Proportional Representative System (PRS) since his party had the largest vote bank. But we have also seen a general election in which not a single member of the UNP was elected to Parliament under the same PR system.

At the same time, the NPP which had only three percent of the vote  until a few years ago, could win more than two-thirds of the seats in parliament under the PR  system in last year’s parliamentary elections amid the changed political landscape  in the wake of the popular uprising (Aragalaya) three years ago.

The traditional mainstream political parties – the UNP the SLFP and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) of the Rajapaksas – are now trying to work together against the NPP government that has been in power for the past year. But these parties, which were rejected by the people last year, are under a political compulsion to find  relevance and space in a challenging political scenario.

It is true that the NPP government has not been able to fulfil most of the election promises and the resultant resentment of the people was reflected in the considerable drop in the votes of the ruling party in the May local polls.

But the opposition’s efforts to work together are focused not on the main problems facing the people, but on the ongoing legal action against corruption and irregularities by politicians who held key positions in previous governments.  Attempts were made to unite the opposition, even as the government took steps to remove the state-funded privileges enjoyed by former presidents. But these failed.

The opposition, which expressed support and solidarity with Wickremesinghe when he was arrested in late August on charges of using state funds for personal foreign travel while being President, has since stepped-up efforts to rally parties against the government. It is no secret that many of the politicians who have held positions in previous governments are terrified that they may be arrested on corruption charges at any time.

Describing the case against Wickremesinghe and the legal actions taken so far against some politicians as ‘constitutional dictatorship’,  the opposition parties are calling on the people to come together to fight the government’s anti-democratic course.

Wickremesinghe was keen to use the UNP’ s 79th annual convention in early September as an opportunity to bring the opposition parties into line. There were more politicians from other parties on the stage than from the United National Party at the convention.

The opposition is preparing to hold a massive anti-government rally in Nugegoda, outside Colombo, on November 21. It has so far been confirmed that the UNP, the SLFP, SLPP,  People’s  Alliance and Pivithuru Hela Urumaya will participate in the rally. The main opposition party, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB)  has categorically  announced  it will not attend.

It was at Nugegoda that the political parties of the allied Rajapasas  held their most successful rally to pave the way for the political resurgence of Mahinda Rajapaksa, who lost the January 2015 presidential election. The political campaigns that followed led to the launch of a new political party, the SLPP and the return of the Rajapaksas to power. Therefore, may be the leaders of the opposition believe that by holding the first rally in Nugegoda, the campaign against the government will be successful.

Maithripala Sirisena was able to win the 2015 presidential election due to the overwhelming  majority of votes from minority communities. The majority of the Sinhala votes went to Mahinda Rajapaksa who  said that what Sirisena got was’ Eelam votes’.

The ‘good governance’ experiment of the UNP and the SLFP which were the two poles in Sri Lankan politics, for the first time, ended in a crushing defeat and the Rajapaksas were able to return to power by carrying out a majoritarian mobilisation. Rest is recent history.

But today there is no such situation. Only a year has passed since the NPP came to power with an unprecedented parliamentary majority. There is no strong political leader in the opposition who can mobilize the people for campaign against the government of the day, just as there could be successful campaigns against the ‘good governance’ government centered on Mahinda Rajapaksa.

Based on the results of the three elections held within a year’s time, it is clear that the SJB is the party with a largest vote bank among the opposition parties. SJB leader Sajith Premadasa seems to be of the opinion that he and his party are not going to get a big political advantage by working with other parties that have lost popular support. He also seems to have doubts about the impact on his leadership.

It is certain that Pramedasa will be uncomfortable in the company of   Ranil Wickremesinghe and Namal Rajapaksa, the national organizer of the SLPP.  He also did not want attempts to merge his party with the UNP to succeed. He fears that such a merger would ruin his political future.

Premadasa, who has declared his readiness to cooperate with the political movement against the anti-democratic activities of the NPP government, is not ready to join the alliance.  Therefore, the question arises as to how successful the efforts of the opposition parties will be without the cooperation of a large opposition party with substantial popular support.

The political parties representing minority communities, such as the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC), the Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA ) and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC )  have also had trouble in  participating in opposition unity efforts. An important reason for this is the involvement of politicians like Udaya Gammanpila, who are unwilling to accept even the bare minimum of legitimate political aspirations of minority communities.

It is true that the opposition parties are forced to work together due to the current situation. However, they are unlikely to work together in an election. The Rajapaksas will not join such alliances and contest the elections.

It is important to see how the people at large view the opposition’s description of the NPP government’s legal actions against politicians and officials for corruption and irregularities as ‘ constitutional dictatorship.’

If there is such a constitutional dictatorship, the main reason for that is the executive presidential system. Therefore, it seems appropriate for the opposition to demand that the government bring an amendment to the present constitution, rather than waiting for the new constitution to be brought in to abolish the system. It may bring considerable pressure on the government.

END