By P.K.Balachandran/Daily Mirror

Colombo May 13 -The Muhammed Yunus government, which took over after the flight of Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024, consists of a mixed bag of civil society representatives, environmentalists, former bureaucrats, and two prominent faces of the student movement which led to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster

On Saturday, May 10, the Yunus government banned all activities of the Awami League under the Anti-Terrorism Act until the trial of the party and its leaders is completed. Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs Adviser to the Interim government, Asif Nazrul, made the announcement after an emergency meeting of the Advisory Council at around 10:55 pm on Saturday.

All cyberspace activities of the League, too,  would come under this ban. The meeting also approved an amendment of the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) Act to include provisions to try “any political party or organisation.”

Nazrul said that the decision aimed to protect the country’s security and sovereignty, ensure the safety of the leaders and activists of the July Movement, and safeguard the plaintiffs and witnesses of the ICT. He added that the interim government will announce the ‘July Declaration’ within 30 working days.

Students’ and Islamists Demand

Leaders and activists of different political parties, student organisations, and Islamic parties and organisations, had joined a mass sit-in organized by the students’ National Citizens’ Party (NCP) on Saturday to demand declaration of the Awami League as a terrorist organisation and ban it.

In a post, Nahid Islam wrote: “The Shahbagh sit-in will continue. Blockades have begun in various parts of Dhaka. If decisions aren’t made quickly, the entire country will once again march toward Dhaka.”

The Muhammed Yunus government, which took over after the flight of Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024, consists of a mixed bag of civil society representatives, environmentalists, former bureaucrats, and two prominent faces of the student movement which led to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster.

Seven of the 17-member Advisory Council lean towards the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) or the Jamaat-e-Islami. Dr. Md Nazrul Islam (Asif Nazrul) is a law professor, researcher and activist. He is believed to have represented the BNP. A.F.M. Khalid Hossain is an Islamic scholar and former vice-president of Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh, a far-right conservative-Islamic advocacy group.

Adilur Rahman Khan was previously appointed as deputy attorney general by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party-Jamaat-e-Islami government. He is a law professor, researcher and civil society activist. Students Nahid Islam and Asif Mahmud, two key organisers of the student agitation, are also members of the council.

Rise of Islamists 

The involvement of the Jamat-i-Islami and Hefazat-i-Islam in the Yunus government could make Bangladesh a happy hunting ground for Islamic extremists from across the world, warned Mohibul Hasan Chowdhury, the former Bangladesh Education Minister now in exile.Chowdhury told The Hindu that groups like Hizbut Tahrir and Jamaat-e-Islami Bangaldesh had called for the establishment of an “Islamic State” in Bangladesh. “Such groups should not be seen in isolation. They are capable of impacting not just the region but also the international system,” he warned.  

“Yunus despises the ideological foundation of Bangladesh which is secularism and Bengali nationalism,” Chowdhury said. 

Where does the AL Ban Leave BNP?

In the midst of the turmoil over the ban on AL, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia returned to Dhaka last Tuesday after four months of medical treatment in London. For nearly 15 years, Khaleda and her BNP were in the doghouse, forced into it by a variety factors, principally Sheikh Hasina’s repressive rule.

But with Khaleda Zia’s arrival a new dimension has been added to Bangladeshi politics. Khaleda’s daughter-in-law Zubaida Rahman, who had accompanied  Khaleda, is likely to lead the BNP until her son Tarique Rahman arrives to take charge from exile in London. The BNP’s rank and file are energised by Khaleda’s return and there is anticipation about Tariq’s role as well.

There are no pending cases against Khaleda Zia. Although Zubaida was convicted in a corruption case, that sentence has been stayed. 

BNP’s Strengths and Weaknesses

Writing in Diplomat, Dr. Shafi Md Mostofa, Associate professor of World Religions and Culture at the University of Dhaka, says that despite its historical popularity, having been founded by Liberation War hero Gen. Ziaur Rahman, the BNP has lost ground due to a combination of internal weaknesses, external persecutions, and shifting public expectations.

According to recent surveys, the party enjoys the backing of approximately 42% of the electorate. For the BNP, the present gives both an opportunity and a challenge. On the one hand, the party’s historical support base positions it as a natural contender for leadership in a democratic Bangladesh. But on the other hand, the party’s inability to capitalise on this support base in the post-revolution period has raised questions about its relevance and effectiveness, Mostofa points out.

“The BNP’s reluctance to endorse radical reforms has put the party at odds with the demands of the youth-led revolution. If the party is to remain relevant, it must find a way to reconcile its cautious approach with the revolutionary fervour of the youth,” Dr.Mostofa added.

BNP’s Attitude to AL Ban

Perhaps under political pressure, the BNP has changed its position on banning the Awami League.  Initially, it was against a ban, being essentially a democratic party.  But after an emergency meeting of its standing committee on Saturday, a member told New Age that the government’s decision regarding the Awami League showed a partial alignment with the proposals the BNP itself had placed during its meeting with  Chief Adviser Yunus on April 16.

Sources say that the BNP will get the electoral support of hard-core Awami Leaguers, given the fact that there is no other democratic alternative for them. For moderate and secular Bengali Muslims and the religious minorities, the BNP has been the alternative to the AL.

Even now, the AL is supposed to have 15 to 20% electoral support, which will go to the BNP in the event of AL’s not being able to contest.

Complications About Relations with India

The ban on the AL will further exacerbate Bangladesh’s relations with India which already appears to be beyond repair, after the ouster of its protégé Sheikh Hasina last year.

The Yunus government has been asking India to hand over Sheikh Hasina to face criminal charges, but India would not oblige. The Ganga (Ganges) waters issue is still to be resolved. Dhaka’s forging of close defence ties with Pakistan is a major irritant.The killing of Bhabesh Chandra Roy, a Hindu minority leader in Bangladesh and vice-president of the Biral unit of Bangladesh Puja Udjapan Parishad has further alienated India. India keeps harping on Islamic extremists posing a threat to Bangladeshi Hindus and India itself.

Even before India and Pakistan went to war over Pahalgam this month, India had been putting out stories about infiltrators and extremists streaming into India from Bangladesh and joining forces with tribal extremists infiltrating into the North East States from Myanmar via Manipur and Mizoram. India last week began a massive security check along the Bangladeshi border. India is nervous about the security of the “Chicken Neck” in the event of a combined attack by China and Bangladesh, if relations with Bangladesh worsened. Given the just-ended hot war with Pakistan, India’s suspicion about a fresh link-up between Bangladesh and Pakistan will only heighten the security risk. This could lead to massing of Indian troops on the Bangladesh border.

India is likely to see an Islamic radical element in any new Pak-Bangla tie up especially because the Pakistani army chief and de facto ruler, Gen.Asim Munir, is a hard-core Islamist and a declared believer in the theory that Hindus and Muslims cannot live together. Pakistan’s creditable performance in the recent war, could well embolden him to take kinetic action.

Impact of Islamic Resurgence US-Bangla Relations

Although the US was critical of Sheikh Hasina’s dictatorial rule, the US has been worried about the rise of Islamists under the rule of Muhammad Yunus. In December 2023, Presidential candidate Donald Trump spoke about persecution of Hindus in Bangladesh under Yunus.

The US and India could begin collaborating on containing the Islamic radical threat from Bangladesh, putting pressure on Dhaka.  However, if BNP comes to power (presumably with the tacit support of Awami League’s silent voters), it is likely to hold an olive branch to India. In a  message that signals both a recalibration of its foreign policy priorities, senior BNP leaders have expressed their desire for a partnership with India based on equality and mutual respect

There is a palpable change now from the past, notes Tanvir Hasan in Dhaka Tribune.  The BNP’s appeal for an “equal and respectful” relationship with India may seem routine on the surface, but it may not be. It suggests a growing recognition within the BNP that past antagonism may no longer serve its political or strategic interests – and that recalibrating its India stance is key to reclaiming credibility both at home and abroad.

But a rapprochement with India will not be easy for the BNP given the fact that both the NCP and the Jamaat are resolutely opposed to it. They can be expected to fight it out on the streets of Dhaka, their preferred mode of political action.

END