By Asiri Fernando/The Sunday Morning

Colombo, March 9 – Following a recent address by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake in Parliament, it is evident that the Sri Lankan government is moving forward with a plan to “rightsize” the armed forces by 2030. This restructuring aligns with the National People’s Power (NPP) Government’s policy framework, emphasizing modernization and technological advancement while optimizing personnel numbers.

Strategic Downsizing and Modernization

President Dissanayake reaffirmed the government’s commitment to reducing the size of the armed forces while simultaneously modernizing military capabilities. The Sri Lanka Army (SLA) is set to maintain a force of 100,000 personnel, while the Navy will expand slightly to 40,000, and the Air Force will be downsized to 18,000 by 2030.

The restructuring plan follows the Defence Review 2030, a comprehensive study conducted by retired military officers, which was initially presented to former President Ranil Wickremesinghe. Much of the reduction in personnel will occur naturally, as many service members who enlisted during the 2005-2008 recruitment surge retire between 2025 and 2030.

2025 Defence Budget and Spending Priorities

The 2025 national budget allocates Rs. 442 billion ($1.5 billion) to the Ministry of Defence (MOD), marking a 3% increase from 2024’s revised budget. The breakdown includes:

    Rs. 382 billion for recurrent expenditures, such as salaries, maintenance, and military operations.

    Rs. 60 billion for capital expenses, including procurement, reflecting a modest 1% increase, suggesting limited major acquisitions unless supported by grants.

The SLA receives the largest share, Rs. 225.5 billion, while the Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) and Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF) receive Rs. 92.5 billion and Rs. 72.1 billion, respectively. Notably, the Navy’s allocation has increased by 12%, highlighting a shift towards maritime security.

Evolving Security Landscape

As a strategically located island nation, Sri Lanka faces evolving security challenges, including:

    Maritime threats such as piracy, illegal fishing, and territorial disputes in the Indian Ocean.

    Cybersecurity risks, exemplified by recent ransomware attacks compromising critical state systems.

    Domestic security concerns, including extremism, organized crime, and the impacts of climate change on national stability.

Given these emerging threats, experts argue that Sri Lanka must balance cost-saving measures with the need for a modern, capable military. The government has sought external expertise, including from the US Institute for Security Governance (ISG), to assist in shaping a new national defence strategy with an emphasis on technological advancements, force optimization, and heightened maritime focus.

A Data-Driven Approach to Defence Reform

Ministry of Defence Secretary Air Vice Marshal (Retd) Sampath Thuyacontha indicated that a national security audit may be conducted to assess current and future security needs. He emphasized that existing analyses, such as Defence Review 2030, will be considered but adapted to the current government’s priorities.

“As modern warfare evolves, advanced technologies like drones, cyber warfare, and AI-driven systems play a crucial role in national defence. Given our economic constraints, a strategic reallocation of resources will be necessary to ensure both cost-efficiency and combat readiness,” Thuyacontha stated.

The Path Forward

Sri Lanka’s military reform marks a significant shift in its post-war defence strategy. While downsizing is financially prudent, experts caution against reducing military capacity purely for economic reasons. The nation must strike a balance between fiscal responsibility and operational effectiveness to safeguard its strategic interests.

The coming years will reveal how effectively Sri Lanka integrates new technology, restructures its forces, and strengthens national security in an increasingly complex global landscape.

https://www.themorning.lk/articles/9Fi1JpqykJKxihqjWpL6

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