By D.B.S.Jeyaraj/Daily Mirror)
Colombo, March 15 – The Sri Lankan Minister of Fisheries Ramalingam Chandrasekar has confidently asserted that the National People’s Power (NPP) will win all 17 local authorities in the Jaffna district. Chandrasekar, originally from Bandarawela, has been the key figure in Jaffna for the JVP-led NPP. His statement, once unimaginable for a Sinhala-dominated party, has gained credibility after the NPP’s surprising success in Jaffna during last year’s parliamentary elections.
The NPP’s Remarkable Electoral Performance
In a dramatic political shift, the NPP, known as Theseeya Makkal Sakthi in Tamil, secured the highest number of votes in Jaffna during the last parliamentary elections, winning three seats with 80,830 votes (24.85%). This was a significant leap compared to Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s presidential vote count of 27,000 in Jaffna. The NPP outperformed traditional Tamil nationalist parties such as the Ilankai Thamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), Democratic Tamil National Alliance (DTNA), and Ahila Ilankai Tamil Congress (AITC).
The NPP’s three elected MPs from Jaffna—Karunanathan Ilankumaran, Dr. Shanmuganathan Sribavanadarajah, and Rajeevan Jeyachandramoorthy—represent a diverse mix of professionals and activists. Ilankumaran, a former electricity board employee, garnered the most votes (32,102). Dr. Sribavanadarajah, a respected medical professional, followed with 20,430 votes, while Rajeevan, an educational entrepreneur, secured 17,579 votes.
Chandrasekar: The Architect of NPP’s Success in Jaffna
Chandrasekar, a key JVP figure, played a pivotal role in expanding the NPP’s reach in Jaffna. He cultivated relationships with Tamil media, organized professional and grassroots communities, and broadened the party’s membership base. His strategy resulted in the NPP winning eight of Jaffna’s eleven electoral divisions, including strongholds like Nallur, Kopay, and Vaddukkoddai.
Following Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s presidential victory in 2024, the NPP gained further momentum. Despite winning the presidency with only 42.31% in the first round, Anura secured victory in the second count with 55.89%. His subsequent parliamentary campaign propelled the NPP to a historic win, securing 159 seats nationwide.
Will the Anura Wave Continue?
The NPP’s success in Jaffna was a landmark achievement, but the upcoming local authority elections present new challenges. Chandrasekar believes the party’s popularity has not waned, citing the continued support of women and youth, strong postal vote performance, and successful rallies, including one in Valvettithurai (VVT), the birthplace of LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran. Holding a well-received event in VVT, a bastion of Tamil militancy, is seen as a testament to the NPP’s growing acceptance.
However, there are significant concerns about whether the NPP can sustain its momentum. The party’s promises to Jaffna voters remain largely unfulfilled, leading to growing dissatisfaction. The NPP had pledged to abolish the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), release Tamil political prisoners, return seized lands, and address enforced disappearances. Yet, little progress has been made. The government now denies the existence of political prisoners, and the PTA remains in place. Additionally, President Dissanayake has avoided discussions on devolution, even persuading Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to exclude mentions of provincial councils in a joint statement.
The Indian Fishermen Issue: A Sticking Point
One of the most pressing issues in Jaffna is illegal fishing by Indian trawlers. During the campaign, both Chandrasekar and Anura promised to end this practice. However, despite sporadic arrests by the Sri Lankan Navy, Indian boats continue to deplete local marine resources. Fishermen who voted for the NPP out of hope for a resolution now feel disillusioned. Many see the NPP as a “NATO” (No Action, Talk Only) government.
Disappointment with NPP MPs
Another issue weakening the NPP’s local standing is the perceived inefficacy of its three Jaffna MPs. They rarely speak in Parliament and remain largely inaccessible to their constituents. When approached, they defer decisions to the party leadership, frustrating voters who expected strong representation. The growing disillusionment among former NPP supporters could significantly impact the party’s local election prospects.
Challenges from Tamil Nationalist Parties
While the NPP’s parliamentary victory was significant, it only secured 25% of the total votes in Jaffna. The remaining 75% went to Tamil nationalist parties and independent groups. If these factions unite or form strategic alliances, they could pose a formidable challenge to the NPP in the local elections. There is also a sense of regret in some quarters about a predominantly Sinhala national party leading in Jaffna, the heartland of Tamil nationalism.
Several Tamil parties have discussed forming electoral alliances, though no concrete results have emerged. Even without formal unity, a coordinated strategy focusing solely on opposing the NPP could shift the balance. However, Tamil nationalist parties must modernize their political approach. The NPP’s victory was driven by a desire for change; unless Tamil parties offer fresh, practical policies, they may struggle to win back voters.
The Local Electoral System Factor
Another crucial aspect is the electoral system itself. The current 60% ward-based and 40% proportional representation (PR) system often prevents any single party from gaining a clear majority in local councils. In the 2018 local elections, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) won a majority in only three of the 48 councils it contested. This system could prevent the NPP from gaining outright control, even if it wins the most votes. Tamil nationalist parties could still form governing coalitions and sideline the NPP.
Final Thoughts: A Make-or-Break Election
The NPP’s stunning parliamentary success in Jaffna was historic, but local elections are a different battleground. Chandrasekar’s confident prediction of a sweeping victory could be overly optimistic, given the rising discontent over unfulfilled promises and ineffective leadership. While the NPP remains popular, factors such as a resurgence of Tamil nationalism, strategic electoral alliances, and lingering policy failures could dampen its prospects.
Ultimately, the upcoming local elections will serve as a critical test for the NPP in Jaffna. Will the party maintain its momentum, or will Tamil nationalist forces reclaim their lost ground? The results will reveal whether the Anura wave was a lasting transformation or merely a temporary electoral shift.
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